USA Versus Syria: Market Boom or Bust?

syrian-refugees-008

Thinking about this seriously, what would be the profit margins if America did go to war with Syria?

‘With the stock market at an all-time high, we are frequently asked about the situation in Syria, and whether now might be a good time to beat a hasty retreat from stocks.  To address these concerns, we reviewed historical capital markets performance during times of war.’

– Mark Armbruster , CFA (Chartered Financial Analysis)

Now most of us might be considering the thousands of refugees, who have had to flee to the borders of their own country in order to escape chaos, mayhem and death. Others may be thinking about the fact that the outside world, appears to have been caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, do we fund the insurgents who may include Al-Qaedah terrorists? Or do we send in soldiers of our own. But there is a third group seriously intent upon balancing the books on profit and loss;and if you think that’s reprehensible then consider the Iraq war.

In advance of the invasion, the Iraqi government opened the warehouses and distributed six months of food rations to the population. Each package bore the sign: “Remember to feed a resistance fighter.” Small arms, explosives and simple instructions for making improvised explosive devices were publicly distributed. In spite of this, Iraq was invaded, Saddam Hussein was overthrown, and the corporations moved in, raking upwards of  $17.2 billion dollars in three fiscal years (in the case of Halliburton Inc.), and in the case of Veritas Capital Fund making upwards of $1.44 billion through a subsidiary DynCorp. Aegis, a British company, saw fit to benefit from the Iraq war, by securing a contract to coordinate all of Iraq’s private security operations, the Pentagon contract was good for $430 million. However, the company’s decision to contribute to Iraq war efforts, lead to a rejected membership application from the International Peace Operations Association. According to The Independent, the influential trade organization did not consider Aegis worthy of inclusion in the “peace and stability industry.” It remains to be seen whether Aegis will continue to be ostracised for participating in the training of Iraqi security forces.

So what of Syria? True, it does appear that the likelihood of an invasion by occupying powers is a long ways off, but America, the United Kingdom and France have guaranteed support to the Syrian rebels, with the United States prepared to send $100 million in aid. There may, therefore, in the future, arise a scenario whereby, the help of American, French and British companies is enlisted, in restoring Syria’s infrastructure. Companies like for example, International American Products, may find themselves called on once again to restore electricity supplies. Fluor made find itself rebuilding and managing water supplies and the Perini Corporation (sans Senator Diane Feinstein), made find itself called upon once more to engage in the environmental clean up of Syria, once the dust has settled. Yes, the war in Syria might very well turn out to be an exceedingly lucrative affair for those funding the Syrian insurgents, those whom it appears are to a limited degree being reluctantly persuaded, to embrace the road to negotiations and eventual peace. A lucrative affair for western corporations, maybe not so beneficial for those who have lost their relatives, livelihoods, and homes in this struggle for what truly constitutes a democracy.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s